The University Of Papua New Guinea
Office of the Vice Chancellor

3 August 1989

Hon Rabbie Namaliu, CMG MP
Prime Minister
Morauta House
Waigani

My dear Prime Minister

I have much pleasure in submitting to you Upng's Independent Evaluation of the Ok Tedi Sixth Supplemental Agreement Environmental Study, prepared on behalf of my university by Drs Kaluwin, Mowbray and Pernetta.

This report should be read in conjunction with other documents prepared and reviewed by the State's team and with the Draft submission paper prepared by the State's Team for the National Executive Council.

This report should assist your Government in their deliberations concerning the future development of the Ok Tedi mine.

I request your understanding for our slightly late submission, but am sure that you will find our efforts beneficial.

Yours sincerely

John D Lynch (Professor)
Vice Chancellor

Jdl/akp

Cc: Secretary, Minerals & Energy
Secretary, Environment & Conservation
Dr Kaluwin
Dr Pernetta
Dr Mowbray
By
The University Of Papua New Guinea
For
The Right Honourable Mr R. Namaliu Prime Minister Of Papua New Guinea University Of Papua New Guinea Science Faculty, 31st July 1989.

The University of Papua New Guinea was commissioned by the Prime Minister to evaluate the Ok Tedi Mining Limited Sixth Supplemental Agreement Environmental study.

The evaluation team concludes that the studies on the sediments and geochemistry of the upper and middle Fly River system are satisfactorily done. However, further research is required in these areas for the floodplains, delta and Papuan Gulf. Biological studies contain problems with methodologies and analyses. Due to uncertainties in making predlctions caution should be taken in drawing conclusions. Studies on trace metals in fish tissues are inadequately reported and bioassay work is done extremely poorly. The latter had to be completely reanalysed by the evaluation team. Socio-economic studies and cost-benefit analysis of waste disposal strategies are incomplete and not adequate.

Despite the criticisms which are contained in this evaluation it should be noted that a considered amount of data have been generated during this study which greatly enhance our understanding of the Fly River system, and contributes greatly to knowledge of the ecology of tropical river systems.

The present uncertainties in the data and models which are presented in this report do not negate its finding but suggest that caution should be applied in using the results too literally.

It is the considered opinion of the evaluation team that in making its decisions the State should pursue a conservative position with respect to the potential and actual environmental impacts and assume that:

the worst case scenarios for the impact on the fisheries of the lower Fly will eventuate;

• that the river system and fish faunas will not recover quickly following cessation of mining and that such a recovery may take several generations if it occurs at all;
• that some deleterious impacts may occur in the delta and in the Western section of the Gulf of Papua to populations of fish and invertebrate species that are sensitive to high concentrations of particulate copper; more research is required for confirmation;
• that some contamination of the flood plain lakes may well occur with consequent adverse effects on fish stocks both within those lakes and in the River System as a whole;
• that the Ok Tedi River may never regain a fish fauna comparable to the pre-mining condition, even if mining were to cease immediately;
• that insufficient data are available from which to derive an acceptable level of contamination by sediments and heavy metals derived for the mine in order to ensure minimal environment impact; consequently any decision on setting an 'acceptable particulate level' and an associated particulate copper level should be regularly reviewed.
• that without an adequate and proper socio-economic analysis and action plan, strong reaction will occur from amongst the peoples of the Middle and Lower Fly as fish yields decline and environmental contamination increase in magnitude.